By John Cairney & Rick Burton
One of our respective daughters is studying for her MBA and was recently given an assignment to study consultant/academician Michael Porter’s Five Forces, the famous framework Porter established “for analysing the competitive intensity and attractiveness of an industry.”
That made us wonder how the Harvard/Oxford professor would view the Brisbane 2032 Summer Olympics, a gargantuan business proposition now approximately seven years away from staging throughout Queensland.
In contemporary terms, those seven years will flash past in the blink of an eye. Or, perhaps to fit with Brisbane’s desire to emerge as the Silicon Valley of the sports tech world, they will stream by in a digitally driven nanosecond.
For those not required, at any point in their life, to study Porter’s work, the simple synopsis suggests there are five key elements to review:
- Competitive Rivalry:
- Threat of New Entrants:
- Bargaining Power of Suppliers:
- Bargaining Power of Buyers:
- Threat of Substitute Products or Services:
In Brisbane’s case, Andrew Liveris, the President of the Board of the Brisbane Organising Committee (the OCOG) may only wish to emphasise two of them because with almost complete certainty Brisbane 2032 gets a free hall pass on threat of new entrants (nothing should challenge the magnitude of the Olympic Games), the threat of substitute products/services (we’ll come back to this) or competitive rivalry (since there really will be no competitors when this circus comes to town).
That leaves the bargaining power of suppliers (i.e., Gold Coast City Council, local universities or certain national/regional sponsors) and the bargaining power of buyers (spectators, media outlets and government agencies).
Liveris is also the author of a 2023 book called Leading Through Disruption (HarperCollins Leadership) which is, as one of the book’s blurbs indicates, “a master class in leadership and offers a blueprint for how business and government can work together to solve the biggest problems facing humanity.”
Another proclamation (from Virgin Group founder Richard Branson) indicates the book is a “masterclass in collaborative forward-looking leadership.”
That’s a lot of master classing which might require diving deeper into Porter’s work and discussing how regional forces will respond to this specific mega event coming to Australia 32 years after the successful Sydney 2000 Games.
One place to start might be in looking at how much Australia, technology and political manoeuvring has changed in three decades. To paraphrase an old American advertising slogan, Brisbane 2032 won’t be your father (or mother’s) Holden.
Why? Well, for one, because everything is different.
Further, if we acknowledge the rapid rate of change, often driven by Moore’s Law (where computer microchip capacity doubles every two years), Australians and
Queenslanders will see notable changes in available tech systems during the coming six-year incubation. That includes jumps in artificial intelligence (AI), virtual/augmented reality (VR/AR), holographic visualisation, immersive eSport gaming, smart glass technology (i.e., Google, Apple or Meta) and 6G-powered telecommunication systems.
Importantly, many of these advances will have been showcased on a global stage at the Los Angeles 2028 Games, where proximity to the world’s dominant tech companies will set a high benchmark for digital innovation. By the time Brisbane arrives, audiences—especially Generations Z, Alpha and emerging Beta—will already expect these capabilities as baseline, while also being courted by substitute technologies capable of drawing them away from traditional Olympic sport. All this is unfolding while millennial parents and Baby-Boomer grandparents wax lyrical about Brisbane’s once-in-a-lifetime ambitions.
Technological disruption is only one part of the equation. The real leverage points for Brisbane 2032 lie in how it manages relationships between those supplying the Games and those consuming them. This speaks to two specific Porter forces: the bargaining power of suppliers and buyers.
Suppliers extend far beyond construction firms, transport operators, and councils. Increasingly, “supply” will mean intellectual property, research capacity, and technological expertise from universities, start-ups, and global firms eager to treat the Games as a living laboratory. Their bargaining power will rise in proportion to how differentiated their offerings are—particularly in low-carbon building materials, renewable energy systems, and digital platforms that reduce the footprint of mega-events.
Brisbane was chosen to deliver the world’s first “climate-positive” Olympics, but that obligation has since been downgraded. In a nation that is still one of the world’s largest fossil-fuel exporters, the tension between ambition and reality will be acute. The suppliers who can credibly bridge that gap will hold extraordinary influence.
The buyer side is equally complex. They aren’t just ticket holders. They’ll include governments, broadcasters, sponsors and a global public with strong expectations. These groups are value-driven, demand accessibility, Indigenous recognition, gender equity and tangible climate action/consideration. For sponsors and broadcasters, time zones create an additional layer of complexity: Brisbane’s schedule sits awkwardly relative to the United States—the world’s largest broadcast and sponsorship market. Fragmented audiences reduce live viewership windows and force organisers to consider how value will be created when much of the world is asleep.
They also carry megaphones—think social media—which amplifies discontent in real time. A Games failing to meet its “green” or diversity promises risks reputational damage, particularly for the city of Brisbane.
Porter might view Brisbane 2032 as a monopoly event surrounded by powerful suppliers and highly demanding buyers. The challenge is not rivalry but contradiction: balancing cost control with climate ambition, local political infighting mixed with global scrutiny amidst technological disruption.
But know this: If Brisbane succeeds, it will be remembered not just as Queensland’s first Olympics, but as the modern Olympic Games that proved mega-events can adapt to multiple “forces” during an era of technological acceleration.
John Cairney is Head of the University of Queensland’s School of Human Movement and Nutrition Sciences. He also serves as Deputy Executive Director for the Office of 2032 Games Engagement and directs Queensland’s Centre for Olympic and Paralympic Studies. Rick Burton is an Honorary Professor at UQ and the David B. Falk Emeritus Professor of Sport Management at Syracuse University. He is co-author (with Norm O’Reilly) of The Rise of Major League Soccer.
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