Do High-Participation Suburbs Produce More Elite Tennis Players?

As the 2025 Australian Open unfolds, a fascinating analysis from Kinetica sheds light on whether growing up in a high tennis participation community influences a player’s chances of reaching the elite level.

The Study
Kinetica examined Australia’s top 60 tennis players (30 men and 30 women), focusing on the suburbs where they grew up. Their proprietary predictive models estimated tennis participation rates in these areas, revealing a compelling trend: community participation matters.

Key Findings
The analysis uncovered a strong correlation between elite player development and high-participation suburbs:

• 37% of top players grew up in the highest participation quintile (top 20%).
• 33% came from the second-highest quintile.
• The proportion drops sharply for lower-participation areas, with few elite players hailing from the bottom quintile.

Why Participation Matters
Several factors explain the dominance of high-participation communities:

• Strong tennis culture: A tradition of the sport fosters interest and motivation.
• Access to facilities and coaching: Quality resources improve player development.
• Competitive environment: A larger talent pool enhances competition and skill-building.
• Socio-economic advantages: Greater community investment often correlates with higher participation.

Underdogs to Watch
While the data underscores the advantages of high-participation suburbs, some players defy these trends. Here are a few inspiring examples of competing at the 2025 Australian Open:

• Storm Hunter (Rockhampton)
  Rockhampton has one of the lowest tennis participation rates nationally. Despite this, Storm Hunter has reached world number one in doubles at age 30, overcoming the odds to thrive.
• Dane Sweeney (Sunshine Coast)
  Sweeney’s home region has relatively low tennis participation rates. At 23, he’s ranked 345 in the world and is working hard to qualify for the main draw.
• Taylah Preston (Joondalup)
  Joondalup, north of Perth, falls in the second-lowest quintile for participation. Yet, at just 19, Preston has already reached a career-high ranking of 134.

About Kinetica
Kinetica is a leading data analytics and advisory firm serving sports governing bodies, governments, and investors. Their Aura platform, often referred to as a “census of sport,” delivers suburb-level insights for over 50 sports, profiling participation, interest, fandom, and consumer behaviour across Australia and the U.S.

Kinetica is revolutionising how the sports sector leverages local data to shape decision-making and investment with tools that differentiate between suburbs like Brighton and Bendigo or Coorparoo and Charters Towers.

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